China News Service, Beijing, September 21 (Reporter Pang Wuji) China's loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for six consecutive months.
　　 On the 21st, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to release data showing that the 1-year LPR is 3.85%, and the 5-year or more LPR is 4.65%. So far, LPR has not been adjusted for 5 consecutive months.
　　 LPR has not been adjusted to reflect that the monetary policy remains stable. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that LPR remains stable and reflects the determination of macro monetary policy. Thanks to the effective prevention and control of the domestic epidemic, the economy continued to recover after the epidemic. In the first eight months of this year, the cumulative fixed asset investment fell only 0.3% year-on-year, and the investment decline further narrowed. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods turned positive for the first time.
　　Xu Xiaole believes that there is no need for further reductions in interest rates at present. At the same time, this is also to reserve policy space in response to the global economic recession, overseas epidemics and uncertainties in the international situation.
　　What is the trend of mortgage interest rates with reference to LPR over 5 years? According to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, the rate of decline of the average mainstream mortgage interest rate in 36 cities in China has gradually slowed down. The decline basically stopped in September. The first set of interest rates was 5.21% and the second set of 5.51%. At the same time, the rate of bank lending has also bottomed out. The 36 cities monitored in September had an average lending cycle of 39 days, an extension of one day from the previous month. This is the first time since March this year.
　　 Among them, after Shenzhen's real estate regulation increased in July, housing purchase credit was tightened, and the average lending cycle has been extended for three consecutive months, reaching 43 days in September, which is the monthly maximum since 2019.
　　 Looking into the future, Xu Xiaole believes that the current international situation facing China’s economic development is still severe. Monetary policy does not have the conditions for turning, but it is only gradually changing from gross loose to structural loose, with more emphasis on precise guidance. At the same time, it is unlikely that the 5-year LPR will continue to fall. In the short term, it is likely to remain low, and the mortgage interest rate linked to it will continue to stabilize at a low level.